Important dates:
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 6 | 5.3 | 11.8% | 45 | 0.39% |
| 10-19 | 6 | 5.0 | 12.6% | 48 | 0.35% |
| 20-29 | 5 | 6.7 | 15.5% | 59 | 0.28% |
| 30-39 | 8 | 6.3 | 14.7% | 56 | 0.41% |
| 40-49 | 5 | 5.6 | 12.6% | 48 | 0.46% |
| 50-59 | 7 | 5.0 | 10.8% | 41 | 0.33% |
| 60-69 | 5 | 4.6 | 10.2% | 39 | 0.34% |
| 70+ | 7 | 5.4 | 11.8% | 45 | 0.43% |
| All ages | 49 | 43.9 | 100% | 381 | 0.36% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 08 | 13044 | 56766 | 473 | 116 | 390 |
| Sep 09 | 13084 | 56863 | 473 | 117 | 430 |
| Sep 10 | 13163 | 56993 | 474 | 117 | 465 |
| Sep 11 | 13253 | 57068 | 476 | 117 | 501 |
| Sep 12 | 13258 | 57087 | 478 | 117 | 438 |
| Sep 13 | 13258 | 57141 | 478 | 117 | 379 |
| Sep 14 | 13307 | 57328 | 482 | 117 | 381 |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 08 | 8503 | 33320 | 351 | 102 | 310 |
| Sep 09 | 8537 | 33399 | 354 | 102 | 334 |
| Sep 10 | 8597 | 33467 | 357 | 103 | 354 |
| Sep 11 | 8666 | 33517 | 359 | 103 | 386 |
| Sep 12 | 8668 | 33528 | 359 | 103 | 340 |
| Sep 13 | 8687 | 33563 | 359 | 103 | 306 |
| Sep 14 | 8739 | 33653 | 359 | 103 | 324 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 4 | 4.1 | 9.3% | 30 | 0.39% |
| 10-19 | 8 | 8.7 | 22.5% | 73 | 0.87% |
| 20-29 | 7 | 4.7 | 12.3% | 40 | 0.56% |
| 30-39 | 8 | 6.6 | 16.7% | 54 | 0.64% |
| 40-49 | 9 | 5.1 | 13.3% | 43 | 0.55% |
| 50-59 | 9 | 4.0 | 9.6% | 31 | 0.32% |
| 60-69 | 5 | 3.7 | 9.3% | 30 | 0.36% |
| 70+ | 2 | 2.7 | 7.1% | 23 | 0.32% |
| All ages | 52 | 39.7 | 100% | 324 | 0.5% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 08 | 6443 | 22272 | 322 | 85 | 216 |
| Sep 09 | 6476 | 22317 | 326 | 85 | 238 |
| Sep 10 | 6524 | 22364 | 329 | 85 | 273 |
| Sep 11 | 6565 | 22393 | 330 | 85 | 294 |
| Sep 12 | 6582 | 22396 | 330 | 85 | 285 |
| Sep 13 | 6594 | 22419 | 330 | 85 | 248 |
| Sep 14 | 6617 | 22480 | 332 | 85 | 243 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 4 | 3.1 | 10.7% | 26 | 0.48% |
| 10-19 | 5 | 4.3 | 15.2% | 37 | 0.68% |
| 20-29 | 2 | 2.6 | 9.5% | 23 | 0.51% |
| 30-39 | 5 | 3.7 | 14.8% | 36 | 0.66% |
| 40-49 | 0 | 3.0 | 11.5% | 28 | 0.56% |
| 50-59 | 2 | 3.7 | 12.8% | 31 | 0.46% |
| 60-69 | 1 | 2.9 | 11.1% | 27 | 0.43% |
| 70+ | 4 | 4.1 | 14.4% | 35 | 0.55% |
| All ages | 23 | 27.4 | 100% | 243 | 0.54% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 08 | 14049 | 64715 | 538 | 94 | 389 |
| Sep 09 | 14089 | 64782 | 544 | 95 | 385 |
| Sep 10 | 14139 | 65041 | 559 | 98 | 412 |
| Sep 11 | 14191 | 65096 | 560 | 98 | 393 |
| Sep 12 | 14196 | 65121 | 560 | 98 | 364 |
| Sep 13 | 14225 | 65236 | 560 | 98 | 344 |
| Sep 14 | 14264 | 65403 | 561 | 98 | 349 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 2 | 3.9 | 11.2% | 39 | 0.33% |
| 10-19 | 9 | 6.4 | 16.9% | 59 | 0.36% |
| 20-29 | 6 | 5.6 | 16% | 56 | 0.26% |
| 30-39 | 0 | 5.1 | 15.8% | 55 | 0.4% |
| 40-49 | 8 | 5.4 | 12.9% | 45 | 0.33% |
| 50-59 | 7 | 4.6 | 11.7% | 41 | 0.29% |
| 60-69 | 2 | 2.1 | 5.4% | 19 | 0.13% |
| 70+ | 5 | 3.1 | 10% | 35 | 0.27% |
| All ages | 39 | 36.3 | 100% | 349 | 0.3% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 08 | 49846 | 388408 | 1766 | 325 | 993 |
| Sep 09 | 50015 | 389321 | 1759 | 325 | 1088 |
| Sep 10 | 50123 | 389787 | 1763 | 325 | 1092 |
| Sep 11 | 50256 | 390171 | 1763 | 326 | 1135 |
| Sep 12 | 50285 | 390320 | 1763 | 326 | 986 |
| Sep 13 | 50309 | 390894 | 1764 | 326 | 892 |
| Sep 14 | 50440 | 391921 | 1778 | 326 | 890 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 16 | 10.3 | 13.6% | 121 | 0.2% |
| 10-19 | 25 | 18.6 | 17.2% | 153 | 0.22% |
| 20-29 | 26 | 21.0 | 21.9% | 195 | 0.19% |
| 30-39 | 22 | 12.6 | 15.3% | 136 | 0.18% |
| 40-49 | 14 | 9.9 | 11.1% | 99 | 0.15% |
| 50-59 | 15 | 9.1 | 9.4% | 84 | 0.13% |
| 60-69 | 4 | 5.1 | 6.1% | 54 | 0.1% |
| 70+ | 9 | 4.3 | 5.4% | 48 | 0.1% |
| All ages | 131 | 90.9 | 100% | 890 | 0.16% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 08 | 674248 | 3190369 | 36546 | 7686 | 15821 |
| Sep 09 | 675908 | 3195553 | 36646 | 7717 | 16585 |
| Sep 10 | 678243 | 3201978 | 36782 | 7740 | 17004 |
| Sep 11 | 680620 | 3205690 | 36884 | 7757 | 17488 |
| Sep 12 | 681203 | 3207149 | 36916 | 7759 | 15730 |
| Sep 13 | 681627 | 3211566 | 36950 | 7759 | 14172 |
| Sep 14 | 683717 | 3221330 | 37103 | 7771 | 14327 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 256 | 201.0 | 12.2% | 1744 | 0.27% |
| 10-19 | 406 | 306.3 | 18.3% | 2616 | 0.35% |
| 20-29 | 289 | 231.0 | 14.6% | 2091 | 0.28% |
| 30-39 | 320 | 241.6 | 15.2% | 2180 | 0.29% |
| 40-49 | 276 | 213.9 | 12.8% | 1827 | 0.26% |
| 50-59 | 213 | 179.4 | 10.7% | 1538 | 0.19% |
| 60-69 | 173 | 138.3 | 8.6% | 1229 | 0.16% |
| 70+ | 157 | 123.6 | 7.7% | 1102 | 0.17% |
| All ages | 2090 | 1635.0 | 100% | 14327 | 0.25% |
Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going:
Various 7-day average trends
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 0.6 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.7 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-10-06 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 7260"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges